If we are looking toward the future of clergy leadership, a good place to start is with theological education. Who is in the “pipeline”? The best source of this information is The Association of Theological Schools (ATS), the accrediting body for seminaries and schools of theology in North America. Their report on students as of fall 2024, shows that theological education is experiencing a significant demographic and structural shift. ATS data shows a total enrollment of approximately 76,500 students across member schools, representing a 1.8% increase from the previous year. Here are some trends: Age and Life Stage. The student body is getting older, reflecting a surge in mid-career professionals and "second career" seekers. The average age of an entering student has risen to 40.4 years. Approximately 14.8% of degree-seeking students are aged 56 or older. Racial and Ethnic Dive...
Back in the last century, I was invited to write an article for The Campus Minister journal on the future of campus ministry. I was too optimistic. In that article, I identified some of the changes that were coming in higher education, but I missed some of the religious trends that would impact denominational ministry with college students—theological divisions, the decline of congregational strength, the decreased denominational support this would bring to both campus ministry and theological education, and the rise of megachurches. One mistake I made was to project too far into the future out of ignorance of the rapid shifts coming in the latter part of the 20 th century. In the next several blog posts, I will attempt to consider possible future trends for the clergy leadership in the local congregation. I hope to avoid my past errors by looking at hard data about what is happening right now in the church and denominat...