Strategy
planning is not what it used to be.
There was a time when governments, businesses, and even churches planned
for the future as if what happened next would be a natural consequence of what had
gone before. Of course, this kind of
linear thinking no longer applies.
Instead of assuming that the future will be like the present, we
recognize that change is all around us and we try to ascertain trends that will
impact what we will be doing five, ten, or twenty years from now . . . and sometimes
it works. Of course, most forecasters
missed the impact of the personal computer, the Internet, and social media, but
we still try!
In a recent
blog titled “5 Unexpected Factors That Change How We Forecast The Future,” Jamais Cascio suggests that although we often
think about the future in terms of technological changes, we would do better to
look at social, cultural, and environmental changes. These are factors that are likely to significantly
impact our best laid plans. He suggests
five areas that should be considered, and I have thought a bit about how these
might impact churches and judicatories.
First, climate.
Whether you believe in global warming or not, we are experiencing the
impact of extreme changes in weather and in the environment. Whether it is tornadoes in the southeastern
United States, droughts in the Midwest, hurricanes in the Northeast, or
tsunamis in Asia, we are certainly more aware of the calamities that the
climate can bring. How does this affect
Christians? Increasingly, churches want to help those impacted by
catastrophes. What does this mean for
the allocation of financial resources and people power in the coming
decades? What is your church going to
give up in order to help with these needs?
Second, demographics.
The population of the United States is changing in many ways. More Baby Boomers are retiring, the birth
rate is down, and soon we will be a nation of minorities. Added to this is the fact that retired people
are living longer and adolescence is lasting into the mid-20s for many young
adults. How will this affect the
church? One key consequence may be in
the contributions and cash flow for congregations. Boomers have been good financial supporters
of the church but will this continue as
they stretch their resources in order to meet the needs of a longer lifespan? Will we find that boomers are helping out
both children and grandchildren who are having financial challenges and are
more dependent than in the past? How
will the church deal with the need to minister in these situations while
finances shrink?
Third, changing social patterns. I have addressed this concern in previous
blog postings, but it is clear that the society in which we live has changed
the definition of “family” and this trend will continue. As the local church ministers to three or
four generations within its walls, how will we provide a balanced ministry that
is inclusive rather than exclusive? What
processes, ministries, and teaching methods are necessary to meet those varied
needs?
Fourth, power and wealth.
We live in a global economy, the world is changing from rural to urban (much
as it already happened in the United States), and the divide between the haves
and the have-nots grows day by day. If
the church is indeed on the side of the poor and the dispossessed, we are going
to have to take bolder steps on behalf of those in need. This may be the most important trend that
challenges our priorities and the one that we are least willing to address.
Fifth, art. I would interpret this to mean not only what
we usually consider “art”—paintings, sculpture, music, drama, etc.—but “culture”
which includes film, architecture, and style.
In reality, we shape the world around us and then it, in turn, shapes
us. Are we teaching believers to exegete
the culture or simply to consume it? What
aesthetic impact does the church provide on its congregants as well as society at
large? Among all of the other demands
on its resources, does the church have a role as a patron of the arts,
encouraging an appreciation for tradition, interpreting and confronting
contemporary expressions of art, and shaping future cultural expressions?
To be honest, churches and judicatories may abdicate all
responsibility in addressing these trends, but the decision to do so will lead
only to marginalization and decline. On
the other hand, a willingness to face these trends creatively and redemptively can
breathe new life into the churches.
Comments