For years, organizations have focused on VUCA, a term introduced by the U.S. Army War College in the late 1980s to describe the world after the Cold War.
VUCA stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. It is a framework used to describe the rapid, unpredictable, and turbulent nature of modern business, military, and strategic environments, focusing on how organizations navigate challenging and constantly changing conditions. Early on, it was often cited a framework for interpreting the COVIC-19 epidemic.
Jamais Cascio, an American futurist and anthropologist, proposes it is time for a new term—BANI—Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, Incomprehensible.
He first introduced the acronym in a 2018 article titled "Facing the Age of Chaos," though it gained traction during the pandemic to describe an increasingly unstable world that had moved beyond the older "VUCA" model.
Cascio designed the framework to capture the emotional and cognitive impact of modern systemic shifts:
B – Brittle: Systems that seem strong but are prone to sudden, catastrophic failure. Think power grids impacted by severe weather conditions.
A – Anxious: The feeling that decisions are high-stakes and information is overwhelming, leading to a sense of helplessness. We see this every day in the massive amounts of information available to us with no clear evidence of authenticity.
N – Non-linear: Small causes resulting in massive, disproportionate effects (disrupting cause-and-effect logic). We encounter this in dealing with the consumerism attitudes of the public.
I – Incomprehensible: Events and data that defy traditional logic or simple explanations. These are things that are so new we have no frame of reference by which to evaluate them.
While the older VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) described the world of the late 20th century, Cascio argued that we are now in an era where things aren't just "complex"—they are fundamentally chaotic and difficult for the human mind to process. BANI is often used in strategic planning and leadership coaching to help people develop resilience in the face of "impossible" situations.
This methodology can be helpful in assessing the significant impact of societal change on churches and religious denominations.
COVID-19 accelerated factors that might not have affected the churches for a couple of more decades. The act of physical gathering became not only a flash point in many churches but a matter of faith (see Tim Alberta’s reporting in The Kingdom, The Power and the Glory). The habit of attending worship physically was broken for many church members and has not returned. Volunteerism in churches has plummeted.
Many denominations are struggling to maintain churches and support denominational structures that no longer seem sustainable or even relevant. Congregants demand the same ministerial services but cannot support personnel or facilities.
The traditions that have bound people to the churches are either weakened or forgotten. Expectations for trained clergy remain high, but the number of persons willing to “answer the call” has declined or is being interpreted in different ways.
Like other parts of our society, the churches are impacted by brittle, anxious, non-linear, incomprehensible events. We cannot ignore them and hope to have a viable ministry during these days.
In future posts, we will consider BANI in depth and think about ways that clergy leaders can address it.
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